Economic resilience defies forecasts in Brazil – And the new Selic projections for 2026 – Economic Analysis (01.23.2026)

We present the January edition of RADAR 4i. The current scenario reveals robust growth in the United States and surprising economic activity in Brazil, requiring adjustments in strategic expectations for the year 2026.

Global Outlook: US Economy and GDP

• Global Growth: The US economy ended 2025 with performance exceeding expectations, driven by tech investments and resilient consumption.
• Monetary Policy: We project a resumption of Federal Reserve easing starting in June, with the Fed Funds rate estimated at 3.25% by the end of 2026.

Brazil Scenario: Selic and Economic Activity

• Selic Rate: We project the start of the monetary easing cycle in March, with a moderate 25 basis-point cut, bringing the rate to 12.50% by the end of 2026.
• Inflation: IPCA inflation ended 2025 at 4.26%, demonstrating a slowdown compared to the previous year.
• Activity Indicators: Central Bank activity indices and retail sales significantly outperformed market projections in the final quarter.
• Governability: The I-GOV index closed December at 48%, maintaining stability relative to the beginning of the current presidential term.

Download the Full Report (PDF)

Access the detailed technical analysis, activity charts, and inflation heatmaps by clicking the link below to download the English version: